90+% value comes from 10% of what we read. Here’s my favorites from July + August.
Books
- Hunt, Gather, Parent by Michaeleen Douclef
- Likely one of the most influential parenting books I’ll read and along with the Emily Oster books will shape my parenting style more than anything
- My quick summary:
- Relax → fights between kids and adults aren’t needed. Babies and kids will be fussy, but if you just accept that and relax about it then it will stop blow-ups.
- Don’t give kids choices → tell little kids what to do and don’t give them choices since that can be overwhelming for them
- Goal is to set the macro structure (ex: we’re going to park today) and then allow kids autonomy within the micro structure of the day (they choose to play at the park)
- A thought this sparked too was how the overall goal is to slowly give kids more and more power over setting their macro structure (ex: a 15 year old choosing what sports to play in high school or where to apply to college)
- Learn from early → kids learn from earliest on by you modeling behavior, helping them practice it, and then being able to master it themselves. Perfect example was cutting vegetables and starting with a butter knife
- Kids want to help → from toddler level, little kids want to help you and you should make sure to do this by giving them little jobs and true responsibilities. This helps them add to the family and be an ally not an enemy
- Touching the Void by Joe Simpson
- Incredible story of a mountaineer who broke a leg, fell into a crevasse, and his partner cut the rope. He survived after crawling for multiple days down to their base camp on his broken leg
- What stood out to me
- He doesn’t blame his partner for the decision and thinks Simon made the right decision as he had to save himself
- Thinking critically about it now, he believes that the reason this all happened was because of poor preparation and it wouldn’t happen to him now
- When getting out, what helped him the most was narrow focus on the next thing he could do to save himself
- He’d time himself for 30 minutes to crawl to next spot and did this over and over
- Continuously focused on little things with intense focus/dedication and that let him defy the odds and get out
- “The voice, and the watch urged me into motion whenever the heat from the glacier halted me in a drowsy exhausted daze. It was three o’clock, only three and a half hours of daylight left. I kept moving, but soon realized that I was making ponderously slow headway. It didn’t seem to concern me that I was moving like a snail. So long as I obeyed the voice, then I would be alright. I would look ahead and note some feature in the waves of snow, then look at my watch, and the voice told me to reach that spot in half an hour”
- Telling the story helped him deal with PTSD as he was able to retell it to cope with it
- Now views it almost as a blessing because the book made his career
- Simon (his partner who cut the rope) saying that you have to first take care of yourself to be able to take care of others
- “Ultimately we have to all be able to look after ourselves, whether on the mountains or in day to day life. In my view that is not a license to be selfish, for only by taking care of ourselves are we able to help others. Away from the mountains, in the complexity of everyday life, the price of neglecting this responsibility might be a marriage breaking down, a disruptive child, a business failing or a house repossessed. In the mountains, the penalty for neglect can often be death”
- The Most Human Human by Brian Christian
- One of my top 5 ever books
- Using the Turing test + computers to explore what makes a conversation and to become better conversationalists and more human to others we interact with
- My Lessons
- Being human is about what makes you unique to other persons
- “To be human is to be a human, a specific person with a life history and idiosyncrasy and point of view” (p 30)
- Digital LLMs/chatbots are amalgamations of internet and aren’t unique to a specific person’s experience like you are
- Similarly relationships you have are all about a built up shared history
- “The difference between numerous ‘impersonal friends’ out there who are more or less fungible and the few individuals we care about specifically…lies… in so-called historical properties…shared history, shared understanding, shared experiences” (p 34)
- Think of friendships as trees slowly grown over time
- Conversations are comparable to chess with a defined opening book and closing book. All the juicy stuff happens in the middle
- Opening book is defined by phrases like “Hi, how are you” and “what’s up” and the ritualized things you say “I’m from xxx”. These don’t really reflect anything about who I am as a person
- The best conversations allow us to get out of the book “Hi! How are you? Good, how are you? Good! -which is not so much a conversation as a means for arriving at one….and the book for me becomes a metaphor for the whole of life. Like most conversations and most chess games, we all start the same and end up the same, with a brief moment of difference in between” (p 131)
- Best conversations offer holds or invitations for the other person to jump off from
- “Think of these elements, these invitations to reply…as akin to rock-climbing gym holds…each is both an aid to a climber and an invitation onto a certain path or route along the ascent” (p 181)
- Put more conversational holds in a conversation when you want it to expand or less when you want to nail a point
- A good house or outfit invites inquiry from other people. This is why Kevin Kelly says the best art to have at your house is something a kid would notice and why I think it’s best to have books out that someone else can comment on
- Information is “Shannon entropy” or how surprising something is determines how much learning there is from it
- This is modeled in conversation by Shannon game where you try to guess each letter or the cloze game where you guess a word in a sentence (ie Mad Libs)
- For myself, the comparison is if you know what a route already is or what someone will say in a conversation, then you aren’t learning anything from it
- “Entropy suggests that we gain the most insight when we take it from a friend, colleague, or mentor of whose reaction we’re least certain” (p 241)
- Being human is about what makes you unique to other persons
- The Obstacle is the Way by Ryan Holiday – 4.5/5
- Good book overall summarizing a lot of different stoic philosophy. Nothing original as he says, but lands key points from a lot of different domains
- Key point – Obstacles in life are constant. We shouldn’t fear them and instead should turn them around and use them as fuel to become our best selves (flourishing)
- “The impediment to action advances action. What stands in the way becomes the way” (in intro)
- We determine how we perceive events.
- There’s no negative event and it’s only our perception that determines this
- “Our perceptions determine to a large extent what we’re capable of” (p50)
- Focus on your locus of control to maximize your energy
- “Focusing exclusively on what’s in our power magnifies and enhances our power. But every ounce of energy directed at things we can’t influence is wasted” (p44)
- Struggles and obstacles are what help us grow. They are blessings because without them we wouldn’t grow
- Don’t stress too much and just take action (ie just do it)
- “If you want to create momentum, you’ll have to do it yourself, right now, by getting up and getting started” (p 75)
- Great Nick Saban quote on only following the process “Don’t think about winning the SEC championship. Don’t think about the national championship. Think about what you need to do in this drill, on this play, in this moment. That’s the process: Let’s think about what we can do today, on the task at hand” (p87)
- “Never let a good crisis go to waste” (p119). Use obstacles to create lasting changes and impacts
- Reframe obstacles as opportunities. Example, I can’t run as much so now I have time to read more on items I’d hoped to get to
- Your will helps your persevere through everything
- Realize things could always be worse “Lose money. Remember you could have lost a friend. Lost a job? What if you lost a limb? Lost your house? You could have lost everything” (147)
- Focus on others to give you strength
- Put all your effort in and then the chips fall where they fall. After you’ve put in all your effort to what’s in your control then let whatever happens play out and don’t stress about the outcome because you maximized what you could do
- Visual Display of Quantitative Info
- Core takeaway – When displaying lots of quantitative info, you need to make it as simple and easy to consume as possible. Designs should focus on not entertainment, but how easy it is to consume the data
Articles
- Not Boring: The American Millenium
- Despite negative news, America is doing great since 2016 and both candidates have been president
- GDP has grown more in US than world 13% vs 12%
- Unemployment is as low as it has been since 1960s
- US GDP marches upwards even as trust in institutions falls
- Packy argues “technology compounds more quickly than the government ossifies, and that entrepreneurship in a broad sense has overtaken institutions as the prime mover of American exceptionalism.”
- America’s “antifragility” comes from strong technology and manufacturing
- Much of America’s growth can be taken over by people looking to grow country
- Uses examples of startups taking on challenging areas like housing, education,etc
- Because of US entrepreneurial spirit there will always be people investing in these areas even if government doesn’t fully solve it
- Despite negative news, America is doing great since 2016 and both candidates have been president
- Farnam Street: Maker vs Manager
- Manager’s day is spent with lots of tiny slots making decisions
- Gathers info and then optimizes to make tons of decisions
- Maker’s schedule is spent with deep work and lots of creative time
- Uses multiple examples of maker’s who do creative work early in the morning and get lots of thinking time in then
- Paul Graham segmented his time between maker’s schedule in the evening and then business stuff in the morning
- I likewise can do this with creative thought in morning and then meeting with people and hanging with family in the evenings
- Goal is to figure out when you think best, optimize on that, and then spend the rest of the time partnering with other people
- Manager’s day is spent with lots of tiny slots making decisions
- 95%-ile isn’t that good
- Starts with idea that you can become 95% at most things by basic work
- Uses examples of video game overwatch and says people don’t improve because
- People don’t want to win or don’t care about winning
- People understand their mistakes but haven’t put in enough time to fix them
- People are untalented
- People don’t understand how to spot their mistakes and fix them
- In this video game you can literally record how you’re doing things and then look back at them in order to improve
- His point is this is actually applicable to most areas of life
- People can jump into the top percentiles by practice, understanding and fixing mistakes, research, and basic skills
- His Meta techniques for improving in any domain are
- Getting feedback and practice → coaches help an immense amount in any domain
- Guided exercises or exercises with solutions → ex: practicing chess books
- Farnam Street: Much of What You’re Going to Do or Say Today is Not Essential
- Being busy at work doesn’t mean you’re doing the essential work
- It appears you’re working, but it doesn’t matter
- We’re doing more busywork but less real work. It seems like the only real work happens when you start earlier, stay later, or often, both. We find quiet, uninterrupted time, when no one is around.
- Be like Marcus Aurelius
- Ask “is this essential” and if not then eliminate it
- Be more effective by not doing what doesn’t matter and making time for what does
- Being busy at work doesn’t mean you’re doing the essential work
- Stratechery: The EU goes too far
- Talks about how bad the internet experience is in EU vs America because of all the constant website pop-ups everywhere
- EU is viewing itself as the world’s regulator.
- With DMA saying 10% of worldwide revenue could be fined, that’s around the same (or less) that Meta and Apple make in the EU in any year
- His point is that this is based on current structure of technology
- If this shifts (which it will) maybe companies just never go to Europe at all because it’s not worth it
- 2024 Commencement Address by Roger Federer
- Said he “graduated from tennis” from one big thing into another and sending his lessons
- Effortless is a myth – everything he did required extreme amounts of effort. He did incredible amounts of practice before tournament to look casual during it
- It’s only a point – you can work incredibly hard and still lose
- Won almost 80% of his matches in his career, but only won 54% of points
- Learn not to dwell on every shot and it’s only a point
- The point is the most important thing in the world, but when it’s behind you, it’s behind you
- Whatever game you play, sometimes you will lose a point. You focus intently on that point, but when it’s behind you, it’s behind you and focus intently on the next point
- The best are the best not because they win every point, but because they know how to deal with it and they are relentless and compete after the point
- Life is bigger than the court – realized early that life was more than just tennis
- Started nonprofits and traveled the world to learn more than just about himself
- World is exciting so go explore it
- Said he “graduated from tennis” from one big thing into another and sending his lessons
- Howard Marks: The Folly of Certainty
- People who express certainty in things like market events and politics are not recognizing that we don’t know what will happen! The world is random
- People who said I would have been right if only…. miss the point. The random thing did occur and there was a chance of that so they were wrong
- In Macro, people were wrong about basically everything they were certain about since COVID
- Inflation being transitory in 2021
- Increasing rates of 2022 causing stock market to fall
- Investor sentiment in markets is hard to predict and things can swing wildly
- One of his favorite quotes is from John Kenneth Galbraith “There are two kinds of forecasters: those who don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know”
- Focuses on how important intellectual humility is
- Can have strong beliefs, but recognize they are fallible
- “No statement that starts with “I don’t know but . . .” or “I could be wrong but . . .” ever got anyone into big trouble.”
- Basically when people admit they’re uncertain and they investigate things then the dangers dramatically decrease
- People who express certainty in things like market events and politics are not recognizing that we don’t know what will happen! The world is random
- Which U.S. Stocks Generated the Highest Long-Term Returns? by Hendrik Bessembinder
- Tracks 29K stocks from 1925-2023
- Highest overall return is Altria and highest 20 year compounded was Nvidia
- $2.65 million per dollar initially invested (Altria Group, previously named Philip Morris)
- Love this crazy quote that shows the power of indexing
- The mean outcome across stocks is a cumulative compound return of 22,840%, or equivalently, final wealth of $229.40 per dollar initially invested. However, the median outcome across stocks is a cumulative compound return of -7.41%, as 51.64% of stocks realized negative compound returns over their full lives in the CRSP database.
- Just owning the market is crazy valuable
- Largest long term returns show stocks increasing over long time period more than anything else
- One striking observation that can be drawn from the data in Table 2 is that the highest cumulative returns delivered by individual common stocks are attributable to annualized returns that are only moderately high. The median annualized return across the thirty stocks listed on Table 2 is 13.03%, while the mean is 13.05%.10 The largest annualized return among the thirty stocks is Altria Group’s 16.29%
- Almost all of these stocks are around for long time and just constantly compounded like crazy
- Tracks 29K stocks from 1925-2023
- Financial Times: Inside the Race to make the world’s fastest running shoe
- Goes into detail on how shoes have changed over past years for marathon running
- Vaporfly debuted in 2017 and since then time barriers have dropped like crazy
- Design returns energy to runner by absorbing downward force and springing back
- How will you measure your life? by Clayton Christensen
- Clayton focused now on telling people answer but instead how people should think and then they can come to the answer themselves
- Asks students 3 questions at the end of class
- First, how can I be sure that I’ll be happy in my career?
- One theory is “powerful motivator in our lives isn’t money; it’s the opportunity to learn, grow in responsibilities, contribute to others, and be recognized for achievements”
- As a manager build people up “Doing deals doesn’t yield the deep rewards that come from building up people”
- Second, how can I be sure that my relationships with my spouse and my family become an enduring source of happiness?
- Think about how to allocate your resources (time and energy) in your life
- People at HBS often focus only on business/career because these have tangible outputs
- Remember to constantly invest in your families as this will pay off down the road
- Third, how can I be sure I’ll stay out of jail?
- Says you should Avoid the “Marginal Costs” Mistake
- Don’t end up in situations where you say as a general rule, you shouldn’t do this, but it’s ok in this particular example
- If you cross lines once, then you end up on slippery slope and changing
- First, how can I be sure that I’ll be happy in my career?
- Choose the right metrics
- Determine what will make your life a success and focus on that
- Sam Altman: The Days are long but the decades are short
- Noah Smith – Harris has the right idea on housing
- Housing is both
- Consumption good – what people need to live
- Investment asset – homeownership rate is about 2/3 and most of middle-class Americans wealth is in their house
- This is true throughout other countries and there’s always a tradeoff between homebuyers (who want it to be affordable) vs homeowners (who want their house’s value to appreciate)
- This is true throughout all OECD countries and US actually has lowest percentage of wealth in housing
- Argues best policy walks a tightrope to do 2 things
- Makes new housing supply
- Slowly but consistently improves housing wealth over time
- Argues best policy is Singapore which
- Subsidizes first time buyers
- Uses government land to increase housing stock
- This is broadly what a Harris plan will do and Noah Smith is behind it
- Harris’s plan also has a bunch of deregulatory tools in it to cut regulations needed to build houses
- Effectively in line with a lot of YIMBY policies
- Housing is both