Q1 2024 Favorite Reads

90+% of the value comes from 10% of what we read. In an effort to do a better job of remembering these lessons here’s a synthesis of my favorite reads from Q1. 

Books 

1. Endurance by Alfred Lansing
   1. Unbelievable story Ernest Shackleton’s crew surviving for two years in Antarctica after their ship (Endurance) crashed there
   2. Remarkable that even in terrible circumstances, the crew maintained encouragement throughout it and they progressively survived by continually moving forward to some goal to get out.
      1. Early on this was moving on the glaciers with sled dogs and later this became them focusing on using lifeboats to get to the far away/tiny Elephant island
      2. In some remarkable passages, the crew describes being happy/merry. As Lansing says “and yet they had adjusted with surprisingly little trouble to their new life, and most of them were quite sincerely happy. The adaptability of the human creature is such that they actually had to remind themselves on occasion of their desperate circumstances”
      3. Boredom and immense hunger were the biggest battles they fought. Men who were so hungry they would think about food literally all day.
      4. The hope and optimism that they could keep moving forward was what propelled them “no matter what the odds, a man does not pin his last hope for survival on something and then expect that it will fail”
   3. A few of the things they survived
      1. They lived entirely on the ice for over a year
      2. They survived primarily on penguins, seals, and the occasionally a ~1000 pound leopard seal which led to a feast
      3. They sailed through the Drake Passage near Cape Horn area with 60+ foot waves and 150+ mph wind 
2. Golden Spruce by John Vaillant
   1. Story of a rare Golden Spruce cut down in British Columbia. I didn’t find the backstory on the individual who cut down the tree interesting, but the history of logging was fascinating
   2. Wood used to be the most valuable resource on the planet – think oil + steel combined as it was used both to create and as an energy source. This created huge demand and why logging exists 
   3. Logging has shaped our planet more than anything else.
      1. Places like Europe (ex: English countryside) used to be entirely wooded 
      2. “If one were to encapsulate the entire history of Western logging into a thirty-second film, its effect on the Northern Hemisphere would be comparable to the eruption of Mt St. Helens on the surrounding forest”
      3. With exception of only the Great Plains/southwest, the US used to be wooded from coast 
      4. Most reduction in forest is already done – estimates 90% of reduction in old growth forests in Washington, Oregon, and Northern California
   4. Trees are fascinating
      1. Only 5% of a tree is living matter. The rest is dead
      2. “In the case of a big West-Coast tree, an individual molecule of water may take a week or more to travel from root to branch, and yet such a tree can release hundreds of gallons of water into the air each day. Under the right conditions a forest can generate its own fog and rain”  
3. 1776 by David McCullough
   1. The early US army was wholly unprepared and came very close to collapsing multiple times in 1776
      1. The US had no standing army, very little training, and was for the most part outgunned in every engagement 
      2. Washington was best prepared, but even he had never been a commander in any large scale war
      3. The US came very close to collapsing in the battle of Brooklyn in 1776 and only survived because British didn’t have favorable wind that day
      4. However, the British missed multiple opportunities to knock out the US and this cost them as the US revolution effectively kept hanging around
   2. Washington failed in some early battles (ex: lost battle of Brooklyn/New York), but he did a great job keeping his army alive and escaping
      1. Throughout the war Washington continued surviving and he grew as a commander
      2. This culminated in crossing the Delaware and routing the British. Helped defend Philadelphia, keep the revolution alive, and really was the turn on which the US survived
4. When Breath Becomes Air by Paul Kalanithi
   1. Incredible story of a doctor who becomes diagnosed with terminal cancer and switches from helping patients to becoming one himself. He uses this to examine the doctor relationship and the meaning of life
   2. Doctors see the most profound suffering in human’s lives and families dealing with death and suffering. This caused Paul to consider what is the meaning of life
      1. Talks about how doctors can’t always help and “when there’s no place for the scalpel, words are the surgeon’s only tool”
      2. Additionally helped him appreciate how hard it is for patients “it occurred to me that my relationship with statistics changed as soon as I became one”
      3. Felt immense responsibility as a doctor as “our patients lives and identities may be in our hands, yet death always wins. Even if you are perfect, the world isn’t. The secret is to know that the deck is stacked, that you will lose, that your hands or judgment will slip, and yet still struggle to win for your patients. You can’t ever reach perfection, but you can believe in an asymptote to which you are ceaselessly striving.” 
   3. Came to believe in two things
      1. Striving and pushing are what propel us forward and give us meaning. We are all fighting a losing battle but we can still grow. He repeated the phrase “I can’t go on. I’ll go on” as his mantra
      2. Connections with family are what matter. His last note to his infant daughter is incredible and he talks about the joy his daughter brought him. This is the truest reminder of what it means to be alive 
5. Die with Zero by Bill Perkins
   1. One of my favorite books and fundamentally changed how I approach life
   2. Built around the idea that you can’t take money with you when you die. You shouldn’t optimize for maximum wealth, but instead should optimize for maximal enjoyment in life 
   3. My takeaways
      1. Time is always more valuable than money because you can never buy time
      2. Spend on investing in experiences with others.
         1. Experiences gain in value over time because they create memories you can look back on forever “a memory dividend”. 
         2. Spending on these isn’t frivolous as your goal is to maximum the sum of your life experiences not your bank account at 90
      3. Money has different value at different times in your life
         1. This is obvious when you think about it as think about how much $100 in college would mean vs $100 at 60
         2. There is a peak utility of when you can get most value from your money and it’s not when you’re old
      4. Most people should spend money earlier
         1. The average age for an inheritance is 60 and those who it is passed down to aren’t in a great position to use it then. 
         2. He advocates for if you’re going to give it to kids, be deliberate and do it earlier. Similarly if you’re going to donate to charity be deliberate and make those decisions while you’re alive vs letting someone else decide it after you’ve passed
         3. You get the most value from money in your 20s-40s as you’re able to buy experiences that are way more incredible then. As a simple example, $10K buying long term care at 85 probably is not as valuable an experience as spending $10K on a 1 week Eurotrip with friends for the same amount of money. 
      5. Think about life experiences in time buckets
         1. A bucket could be 25-30 or pre-kids and post-kids
         2. Once time passes by a bucket, the types of experiences you can have will shift. You won’t go on a college trip with friends when you’re in your 60s 
         3. Be thoughtful with the time in each bucket and for those like myself who are stingy, prepare to spend more to enjoy those once in a lifetime experiences
      6. You can address specific risks that you’re worried about and don’t need to hold a large pot of money
         1. Specifically long term health care insurance and annuities can take fixed amounts of money and address the variability of risks
   4. My summary is to be thoughtful about a few things
      1. Spend on those you love and optimize on experiences
      2. Invest in experiences with others and worry less about money when you’re already in a stable financial position
      3. Realize that time comes in buckets and some things you can’t do later. When I am on the fence, I should generally go for it 
6. Seven Brief Lessons on Physics by Carlo Rovelli
   1. Fascinating short book on the core lessons of physics in understandable language
   2. Relativity – Gravity isn’t different from space. Think of relativity as the shaping of space by matter.
      1. Makes spacetime look like a set of rolling hills throughout the galaxy 
      2. The universe is constantly shifting and expanding because of relativity
   3. Quantum leaps are photons (energy) moving to other elements
      1. Quantum mechanics are all about the interactions between systems
      2. “In quantum mechanics no object has a definite position except when colliding headlong with something else”
   4. The two theories of relativity and quantum mechanics contradict each other (in relativity there is a curved space and everything is continuous. Quantum mechanics is flat space where quanta of energy leap)
      1. One of big focuses in physics is finding theory that unites these well tested theories 
      2. On idea from loop theory coming out is that our universe was created not by a big bang, but a “big bounce” where another universe contracted before exploding outward in the Big Bang 
   5. Heat goes from hot to cold surfaces because in heated matter particles are moving faster so just by random chance they’ll hit matter of cold surfaces and transfer energy 
   6. Touches on time and how it doesn’t really exist. I didn’t follow this, but it’s in Carlo’s other book which may be worth exploring
7. Clear Thinking by Shane Parrish
   1. An overview of how to make better decisions from the amazing creator of Farnam Street blog 
   2. Takeaways I had 
   3. Positioning is the best aid to judgment
      1. It’s easier to look like a genius when you start from a place of strength. (Think about picking stocks with cash in 2008). Alternatively a bad position can ruin you before you even make a decision
      2. Decisions are often based on your prior position. Focus on positioning yourself up with maximum optionality for future decisions.
   4. Our defaults are critical to behavior
      1. Emotions, our ego, social pushes, and inertia can all change our defaults 
      2. Set your defaults judiciously to change your behavior 
      3. Rules enable you to not have to decide something everyday and instead to just lean back on a previously made decision. (Ex: I bike to work every day)
   5. Create your own personal board of directors 
      1. Think about who you admire and set them up as your personal board in your mind. 
      2. Reference how each of them would approach a situation to adjust your mental approach 
      3. Pretend you are pitching something to them. If you wouldn’t feel comfortable pitching it to them maybe you shouldn’t do it
   6.  Mistakes help you learn. Respond to mistakes by
      1. Accept responsibility 
      2. Learn from mistake 
      3. Commit to doing better 
      4. Repair damage as best you can 
   7. Shane’s Decision making process
      1. First define problem before anything else then
      2. Then explore solutions – force yourself to come up with 3+ solutions to any problem 
      3. Next evaluate options –
         1. Determine criteria for how you’re evaluating.
         2. Focus on high fidelity info close to source 
         3. When you get info from others ask them either detailed questions or how they think about something instead of what they think 
         4. Know what the high value sources of info are 
      4. Then make the judgment
         1. Always keep a margin of safety 
         2. Build in trip wires (or fail safes) for when you should change if your decision doesn’t work out 
         3. Write down why you made a decision so future you can learn from yourself
      5. Finally execute the best option
   8. Nature’s Metropolis: Chicago and the Great West by William Cronin
      1. Explores Chicago’s rise as the US frontier city 
      2. A city’s history is inextricably linked to the countryside around it.
         1. The pastoral landscape of farms shape the environment just as much as the city and neither is “truly nature” 
         2. Additionally each city reflects the surrounding area because farmers and workers aggregate their goods in cities.
            1. Even today think of a farmer’s market 
            2. Cities and surrounding areas are inextricably linked
      3. Chicago’s importance came from river connecting Mississippi to Great Lakes
         1. There was a 15 foot ridge and it was a major effort to create a canal connecting the Chicago river to Mississippi 
         2. Once canal existed, Chicago sat perfectly between the Great Lakes connected all the way through to NYC and the Mississippi river system
      4. Because of this Chicago river Chicago sat perfectly between connections.
         1. This caused railroads to come to Chicago and lead to major network effects 
         2. Chicago became western city connected to NY and East 
         3. Railroads meant everything cheaper to go through Chicago first and it became the central hub of the west 
         4. Chicago then aggregated wood, grain, farms, etc. from bountiful frontier into the city 
      5. Chicago was creation of first true commodities
         1. Grain elevator enabled standardization of grain by weight. Didn’t need to sell your grain but just “grain quality 2” 
         2. This led to easier selling, full commoditization, and futures markets 
         3. Grain, lumber, meat all aggregated in Chicago because of the intersection of lakes, river, and rail.  Network effect benefits to centralization 
      6. Chicago fire left critical infrastructure intact (railroads, boats, etc) and essentially created a new totally unblemished downtown
         1. This then led to modern skyscrapers because people realized how valuable central land was and there was only a limited amount of it

Articles

1. Howard Marks – Easy Money (20 min read)
   1. Details how low interest rates distorted the economy. Causes people to take on more risk/leverage
   2. Low interest rates subsidize borrowers at expense savers/lenders. A 30 year old buying a house with a 3% interest rate is subsidized by their grandparent
   3. Cycles don’t have beginning and end, but all rhyme with low rates → increased returns → increased risk → bad decisions/investment losses → economic contractions → stimulative rate cuts (low rates)
   4. Current rates aren’t high and are more normal than we expect “Between 1990 and 2000, which I would consider the last roughly normal period for rates, the fed funds rate ranged from 3% to 8%, suggesting a median equal to today’s 5.25-5.50%.”
   5. However, current thinking on Fed is often wrong and remember 18 months ago people thought Fed caused a recession, 12 months ago, people thought the Fed would cut in 2023. Recognize what we don’t know
2. Morgan Housel – Respect Each Other’s Delusions (10 min read)
   1. Everyone has opinions that are wrong. You just only see others and not your own. Have empathy for others and withhold judgement
   2. Realize delusions comes from 3 places
      1. What you experience firsthand
      2. How much you want something to be true – When we need something to be right, we believe it
      3. When there’s less firm info – nobody argues over math
3. Nat Bullard – Decarbonization Presentation (30-45 min)
   1. Expansive walkthrough of everything in the environment. My main takeaways
   2. We are seeing climate change impacts → first 2 degree celsius day + US had 33% increase in natural disasters last year
   3. Renewables + solar power are on steadily increasing + cost curves falling dramatically
   4. Texas is leading in solar in the US due to setting up incentives well
   5. 18% of new car sales are EVs. This is primarily led by China which is major global leader 
4. Ben Thompson – Apple Vision Pro’s Missing Apps (15 min)
   1. Three large companies (Netflix, YouTube, Spotify) not on Apple Vision Pro
   2. Apple Vision Pro launch is opposite of iPhone launch where companies eager to partner with Apple 
   3. Apple’s treatment of others in App Store causing relationships to sour in what should be a historic launch
5. Dan Wang – 2023 Letter (45 min)
   1. Dan explored Thailand through a 10 day walk and talk. Getting yourself physically out and exploring a new place with others helps reset your mind + connect you 
   2. China has some dysfunction but is crushing it in manufacturing.
      1. Global leader in solar, EVs, and passed Japan as world’s largest auto maker. 
      2. “China built half of the world’s ships (by gross tonnage) in 2022, while the US had 0.2 percent of capacity: in practice, this meant that while China builds hundreds of new ships a year, the US builds three to five.”
   3. Chicago is US’s second largest city, but why?
      1. Chicago was connector of NY and New Orleans with Oceans and River
      2. Then when railroads and grain elevators brought everything into Chicago it became the center connecting farms to factories
   4. Believes Americans will never appreciate how in Asia people can get food for cheap price of only a few dollars and never need to cook 
6. Farnam Street – The North Wind. Feb 4, 2024 Brain Food (5 min)
   1. Consistent growth day after day is what matters. Quote – “The greatest threat to success is inconsistency.”
   2. Struggle is what makes you grow – Quote “There is a Scandinavian saying which some of us might well take as a rallying cry for our lives: The north wind made the Vikings! Wherever did we get the idea that secure and pleasant living, the absence of difficulty, and the comfort of ease, ever of themselves made people either good or happy? Upon the contrary, people who pity themselves go on pitying themselves even when they are laid softly on a cushion, but always in history character and happiness have come to people in all sorts of circumstances, good, bad, and indifferent, when they shouldered their personal responsibility. So, repeatedly the north wind has made the Vikings.”
   3. Don’t measure yourself by someone else’s ruler. You can define your own path